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Table 1 Trends in migraine incidence rate across Socio-demographic Index quintiles, 1990−2019

From: Global, regional, and national time trends in incidence for migraine, from 1990 to 2019: an age-period-cohort analysis for the GBD 2019

 

Global (N = 204)

High SDI (N = 41)

High-middle SDI (N = 41)

Middle SDI (N = 40)

Low-middle SDI (N = 41)

Low SDI (N = 41)

 

1990

2019

1990

2019

1990

2019

1990

2019

1990

2019

1990

2019

Population

 Number, n

5,349,847,687 (5,238,894,009, 5,459,638,741)

7,737,464,623 (7,482,639,908, 7,992,501,511)

8.22E + 08

1.01E + 09

1.15E + 09

1.43E + 09

1.72E + 09

2.4E + 09

1.13E + 09

1.76E + 09

5.28E + 08

1.13E + 09

 Percentage of global, %

100

100

15.4

13.1

21.5

18.5

32.1

39.6

21.1

22.8

9.9

14.6

Incidences

 Number, n

62,585,283 (54,459,799, 70,979,260)

87,648,969 (76,635,688, 98,654,602)

9,488,136(8,323,560, 10,641,927)

10,451,773 (9,214,844, 11,732,312)

12,690,478 (11,074,182, 14,289,470)

14,746,658 (13,014,486, 16,553,543)

20,428,973 (17,767,242, 23,110,638)

27,654,960 (24,344,576, 31,015,012)

14,137,339 (12,145,938, 16,167,573)

21,915,270 (19,025,662, 24,837,027)

5,805,439 (4,904,231, 6,717,440)

12,829,042 (10,860,141, 14,818,974)

 Percentage of global, %

100

100

15.2

11.9

20.3

16.8

32.6

31.6

22.6

25

9.3

14.6

 Percent change of incidences 1990–2019, %

40.05 (36.84, 43.46)

10.16 (7.99, 12.7)

15.7 (11.78, 20.1)

32.74 (28.03, 37.89)

53.3 (47.9, 58.14)

112.51 (109.2, 115.85)

All-age incidence rate

 Rate per 100,000

1169.85 (1017.97, 1326.75)

1132.79 (990.45, 1275.02)

1154.26 (1012.58, 1294.62)

1031.37 (909.31, 1157.74)

1103.11 (962.61, 1242.1)

1030.94 (909.85, 1157.26)

1189.98 (1034.93, 1346.18)

1153.94 (1015.81, 1294.14)

1251.48 (1075.2, 1431.2)

1242.37 (1078.56, 1408.01)

1099.22 (928.58, 1271.9)

1136.64 (962.2, 1312.95)

 Percent change of rate 1990–2019, %

-3.17 (-5.38, -0.81)

-10.65 (-12.4, -8.59)

-6.95 (-10.1, -3.41)

-4.91 (-8.28, -1.23)

-1.83 (-5.29, 1.27)

-0.56 (-2.11, 1.00)

Age-standardized incidence rate

 Rate per 100,000

1119.53 (977.26, 1262.34)

1142.54 (995.9, 1289.44)

1199.73 (1042.34, 1357.11)

1219.59 (1059.44, 1376.83)

1078.79 (942.74, 1215.21)

1121.24 (979.29, 1266.04)

1106.91 (969.11, 1242.76)

1162.4 (1018.18, 1305.51)

1172.49 (1024.75, 1322.31)

1177.03 (1023.69, 1328.1)

1051.73 (910.42, 1193.79)

1048.94 (909.02, 1191.58)

 Percent change of rate 1990–2019, %

2.06 (1.13, 2.84)

1.66 (0.41, 2.72)

3.45 (2.38, 4.54)

3.04 (2.08, 3.99)

-0.71 (-2.04, 0.51)

-4.02 (-4.79, -3.18)

APC model estimates

 Net drift of incidence rate, % per year

0.089 (-0.005, 0.183)

0.053 (-0.047, 0.154)

0.103 (0.01, 0.196)

0.15 (0.059, 0.242)

-0.003 (-0.095, 0.088)

-0.008 (-0.103, 0.087)

  1. Notes: All-age incidence rate: crude incidence rate
  2. Age-standardized incidence rate is computed by direct standardization with global standard population in GBD 2019
  3. Net drifts are estimates derived from the age-period-cohort model and denotes overall annual percentage change in incidence rate, which captures the contribution of the effects from calendar time and successive birth cohorts
  4. Parentheses for all GBD health estimate indicate 95% uncertainty intervals; parentheses for net drift indicate 95% confidence intervals
  5. SDI Socio-demographic Index, APC Age-period-cohort