Table 2 Hierarchical pain predictive models: stepwise-selected baseline predictors, significant baseline predictors only (p < 0.05), significant baseline predictors and stepwise-selected follow-up predictors
|  | Model 1: stepwise-selected baseline predictors (N = 16,097) | Model 2: baseline with significant predictors only (N = 16,979) | Model 3: significant baseline predictors and stepwise-selected follow-up predictors (N = 11,852) | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OR (95% CI) | Z (p-value) | OR (95% CI) | Z (p-value) | OR (95% CI) | Z (p-value) | |
Baseline Variables | ||||||
 Female gender | 1.39 (1.24–1.56) | 5.51 (<.001) | 1.42 (1.28–1.58) | 6.49 (<.001) | 1.36 (1.18–1.56) | 4.34 (<.001) |
 Engage in vigorous exercise | 1.50 (1.32–1.71) | 6.10 (<.001) | 1.73 (1.53–1.95) | 8.93 (<.001) | 3.10 (2.64–3.64) | 13.69 (<.001) |
 Bereavement | 1.31 (1.17–1.46) | 4.59 (<.001) | 1.50 (1.35–1.67) | 7.44 (<.001) | 1.90 (1.64–2.20) | 8.52 (<.001) |
 Obesity | 1.23 (1.09–1.38) | 3.45 (.001) | 1.22 (1.09–1.36) | 3.37 (<.001) | 1.17 (1.00–1.36) | 1.97 (.049) |
 Self-rated health – average to moderate (vs. good) | 1.65 (1.44–1.89) | 7.23 (<.001) | 1.75 (1.54–1.99) | 8.64 (<.001) | 1.07 (0.89–1.28) | 0.68 (.499) |
 Self-rated health – poor (vs. good) | 2.24 (1.78–2.81) | 6.97 (<.001) | 2.26 (1.82–2.81) | 7.35 (<.001) | 0.95 (0.61–1.48) | −0.23 (.819) |
 Sleep problems | 1.35 (1.21–1.52) | 5.13 (<.001) | 1.41 (1.26–1.57) | 5.98 (<.001) | 1.25 (1.07–1.46) | 2.78 (.005) |
 Multimorbidity | 1.10 (0.98–1.24) | 1.60 (.109) | – | – | – | – |
 Smoking – Former smoker (vs. never smoker) | 0.87 (0.77–1.00) | −2.02 (.043) | – | – | – | – |
 Smoking – Current smoker (vs. never smoker) | 1.15 (0.98–1.24) | 1.91 (.056) | – | – | – | – |
Follow-up Variables | ||||||
 Low energy level/Fatigue |  |  |  |  | 1.97 (1.67–2.32) | 8.15 (<.001) |
 Self-rated health – average to moderate (vs. good) |  |  |  |  | 2.32 (1.94–2.78 | 9.19 (<.001) |
 Self-rated health – poor (vs. good) |  |  |  |  | 3.80 (2.57–5.60) | 6.71 (<.001) |
 Difficulties with walking |  |  |  |  | 1.52 (1.26–1.83) | 4.35 (<.001) |
 Sleep problems |  |  |  |  | 1.88 (1.61–2.18) | 8.13 (<.001) |
 Respiratory disease |  |  |  |  | 1.26 (1.03–1.56) | 2.19 (.028) |
 Joint disorders |  |  |  |  | 0.96 (0.83–1.11) | −0.57 (.571) |
 Stroke |  |  |  |  | 0.90 (0.54–1.52) | −0.38 (.702) |