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Table 2 Hierarchical pain predictive models: stepwise-selected baseline predictors, significant baseline predictors only (p < 0.05), significant baseline predictors and stepwise-selected follow-up predictors

From: Predictors of pain in general ageing populations: results from a multi-country analysis based on ATHLOS harmonized database

 Model 1: stepwise-selected baseline predictors
(N = 16,097)
Model 2: baseline with significant predictors only
(N = 16,979)
Model 3: significant baseline predictors and stepwise-selected follow-up predictors
(N = 11,852)
OR (95% CI)Z (p-value)OR (95% CI)Z (p-value)OR (95% CI)Z (p-value)
Baseline Variables
 Female gender1.39 (1.24–1.56)5.51 (<.001)1.42 (1.28–1.58)6.49 (<.001)1.36 (1.18–1.56)4.34 (<.001)
 Engage in vigorous exercise1.50 (1.32–1.71)6.10 (<.001)1.73 (1.53–1.95)8.93 (<.001)3.10 (2.64–3.64)13.69 (<.001)
 Bereavement1.31 (1.17–1.46)4.59 (<.001)1.50 (1.35–1.67)7.44 (<.001)1.90 (1.64–2.20)8.52 (<.001)
 Obesity1.23 (1.09–1.38)3.45 (.001)1.22 (1.09–1.36)3.37 (<.001)1.17 (1.00–1.36)1.97 (.049)
 Self-rated health – average to moderate (vs. good)1.65 (1.44–1.89)7.23 (<.001)1.75 (1.54–1.99)8.64 (<.001)1.07 (0.89–1.28)0.68 (.499)
 Self-rated health – poor (vs. good)2.24 (1.78–2.81)6.97 (<.001)2.26 (1.82–2.81)7.35 (<.001)0.95 (0.61–1.48)−0.23 (.819)
 Sleep problems1.35 (1.21–1.52)5.13 (<.001)1.41 (1.26–1.57)5.98 (<.001)1.25 (1.07–1.46)2.78 (.005)
 Multimorbidity1.10 (0.98–1.24)1.60 (.109)
 Smoking – Former smoker (vs. never smoker)0.87 (0.77–1.00)−2.02 (.043)
 Smoking – Current smoker (vs. never smoker)1.15 (0.98–1.24)1.91 (.056)
Follow-up Variables
 Low energy level/Fatigue    1.97 (1.67–2.32)8.15 (<.001)
 Self-rated health – average to moderate (vs. good)    2.32 (1.94–2.789.19 (<.001)
 Self-rated health – poor (vs. good)    3.80 (2.57–5.60)6.71 (<.001)
 Difficulties with walking    1.52 (1.26–1.83)4.35 (<.001)
 Sleep problems    1.88 (1.61–2.18)8.13 (<.001)
 Respiratory disease    1.26 (1.03–1.56)2.19 (.028)
 Joint disorders    0.96 (0.83–1.11)−0.57 (.571)
 Stroke    0.90 (0.54–1.52)−0.38 (.702)
  1. Notes. Model 1: Hosmer-Lemeshow’s p-value = .085; AUC 0.64 (95% CI: 0.63–0.65). Model 2: Hosmer-Lemeshow’s p-value = .038; AUC 0.65 (95% CI: 0.64–0.66). Model 3: Hosmer-Lemeshow’s p-value = .010; AUC 0.79 (95% CI: 0.78–0.80)