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Table 4 Poisson regression was used to evaluate baseline variables in HUNT2 and risk ratios (RRs) of headache status 22 years later in HUNT4 in persons who participated in all three surveys (n = 16,118). Precision of the estimates was assessed by 95% confidence interval (CIs). Reference group in all three headache status groups consisted of participants without headache in all three surveys (n = 6775)

From: Time trends of major headache diagnoses and predictive factors. Data from three Nord-Trøndelag health surveys

 Previous headache1 (n = 4700)New-onset headache2 (n = 1902)Stable headache3 (n = 2741)
Demographic variables4RR95% CIRR95% CIRR95% CI
Age 20–39 years1.41.3–1.52.11.9–2.32.82.5–3.1
40–49 years1.21.1–1.31.61.5–1.81.91.7–2.1
50 years or more (reference)      
Gender (women vs. men)1.51.4–1.51.71.6–1.92.32.1–2.5
Education (low vs. high)1.01.0–1.11.21.0–1.41.11.0–1.2
Headache status at baseline5
 Migraine (yes vs. no)2.52.5–2.63.83.5–4.13.73.6–3.9
 Migraine with aura (yes vs. no)2.32.2–2.43.73.3–4.12.82.6–2.9
 Migraine without aura (yes vs. no)2.52.4–2.53.73.3–4.03.02.8–3.1
 Non-migrainous headache (yes vs. no)4.64.4–4.84.64.3–4.95.65.3–5.9
 Chronic headache without MOH3 (yes vs. no)2.11.9–2.32.11.6–2.82.62.4–3.0
 MOH6 (yes vs. no)2.32.1–2.54.12.5–6.83.32.9–2.7
Self-reported complaints2
 Chronic MSCs (yes vs. no)1.41.4–1.51.61.5–1.72.12.0–2.2
 HADS A score (> 11 vs. < 7)71.51.4–1.71.81.5–2.12.11.9–2.3
 HADS D score (> 11 vs. < 7)71.51.3–1.71.41.1–1.92.11.9–2.5
Measured variables5
 BMI8 (> 30 vs. < 25)1.11.0–1.11.00.9–1.11.11.0–1.2
 Systolic BP (> 160 mmHg vs. < 140 mmHg)1.01.0–1.20.70.5–0.80.60.5–0.8
Lifestyle factors5
 Smoking (daily or past vs. never)1.11.0–1.11.11.1–1.21.21.1–1.2
 Days using alcohol per month (≥5 vs. 0)0.80.7–0.91.00.8–1.10.70.7–0.8
 Inactive vs. high physical activity90.90.8–1.00.90.8–1.10.80.7–0.9
  1. 1. Headache in HUNT2 and/or HUNT3, but without headache in HUNT4. 2. Without headache in HUNT2 and/or HUNT3 but reported headache in HUNT4. 3. Headache in HUNT2, HUNT3 and HUNT4. 4. Adjusted for age, gender and education level 5. Adjusted for age, gender, education and measured variable; 6. Medication overuse headache; 7. Hospital Anxiety and depression scale; 8. Body mass index; 9. Reference High (≥3 h hard activity per week) vs. physical inactive (none or less than 1 h of light activity per week)